Value Betting

Everybody knows that betting, in the commonly understood sense of the term, is a mug's game. There is a simple reason for this, and that is that bookmakers build in their own commission whenever they offer a price. This is known in the field as the "house edge".

The house edge is a very simple concept. What it means in essence is that the price offered to you, the customer, on any particular event is not the "real" price. Meaning that it is not an accurate reflection of the probability of your bet being successful.

EVENLY MATCHED

A good demonstration of this would be a contest between two players or teams who are precisely evenly matched in their sport. In such an event the "real" odds for either competitor would be 1/1, or Evens. However the bookmaker will always quote a price that is less generous than this, typically 5/6 or 10/11. The "missing" amount is the house edge. Please note that you still have a 50% of winning money on the bet. However as the amount that you win does not reflect the true value of the wager it follows that if you were to continue to bet on different events on the same terms you would ultimately lose and the bookmaker would win. In fact the more bets you place the more certain your making a loss would be.

Another simple example would be a random toss of a coin. Should somebody offer you 80p if the coin shows heads but demand £1 from you if it shows tails would you take it? You are, after all, just as likely to win as you are to lose. However, repeat the exercise ten times and you will probably be down on your money. Repeat it a hundred times and it is a racing certainty. The other person is certain to win because he or she has the house edge.

Bookies make their living by paying customers less than their winning bet is worth. That is the bottom line.

It figures then that were you to find a bookmaker who was prepared to consistently offer you a better price than the bets you are making are worth you will end up better off. This is not just a likelihood, it is a stone cold fact.

Other than through special offers and bonuses, it is unlikely that you will find a book that is knowingly prepared to offer you more than a bet is actually worth. However on rare occasions the bookie does get it wrong, and a price is quoted which is more generous than the facts would seem to require.

ODDS COMPARISON SITES

With the widespread availability of odds comparison sites it is often easy to spot a rogue price. It is always an inexact science because it is nigh on impossible to determine the exact probability of a particular sporting outcome. Some value betting companies like to try to work these things out by reference to a complex mathematical formula. The simple fact is that an element of it will always involve some guesswork.

When a price is noticeably out of line with those being offered by other bookmakers the house edge is effectively reversed. This doesn't make it any more likely that you will win your bet. But it does mean that, if the opportunity arises to repeat the exercise often enough, you will inevitably profit and some point. This is called value betting.

The ability to identify a value bet is sometimes quite an art form. It is further complicated by the fact that a bookmaker may have inside information that a particular athlete or competitor is carrying a injury, information which may not be available to others. With this information the price of the favoured party will drop and that of the injury victim will inflate. The value better needs to be wise to this possibility.

Anybody who is prepared to try to follow this path to potential success needs nerves of steel, and also a considerable amount of patience. Only bet when you know a wager is overpriced. Use a reliable sportsbook or a leading betting exchange and don't panic. If you are calculating the reverse in the house edge correctly you will be a winner overall.